2026 Housing Forecast for the Treasure Valley: What Buyers and Homeowners Should Expect

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2026 Housing Forecast for the Treasure Valley: What Buyers and Homeowners Should Expect

The 2026 housing market is already taking shape, and buyers and homeowners across Boise, Meridian, Nampa, Eagle, Kuna, Star, and the broader Treasure Valley are asking the same question:

Will it finally get easier to make a move?

After several years of rapid price growth, rising mortgage rates, and historically low inventory, the housing market is gradually shifting into a more balanced phase.

According to the latest national forecasts from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), Realtor.com, and Zillow, 2026 is expected to bring modest improvements across multiple areas of the housing market.

That doesn’t mean a dramatic reset or crash. Instead, economists expect a gradual shift toward a more stable and navigable market for both buyers and homeowners.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in the Treasure Valley, understanding these forecasts can help you plan your next move more confidently.

Table of Contents

Sales Activity: Slow Improvement, Not a Surge

After several years of reduced transaction activity, housing economists expect home sales to gradually increase in 2026.

However, this improvement is expected to happen steadily rather than suddenly.

The three major national forecasts show slightly different expectations:

  • NAR: approximately 14% growth in home sales
  • Zillow: about 4.3% growth, bringing total annual sales to roughly 4.26 million homes
  • Realtor.com: a more cautious 1.7% increase, reaching about 4.13 million existing home sales

One major reason Realtor.com expects slower growth is because many homeowners are still holding onto historically low mortgage rates.

Roughly four out of five homeowners currently have mortgage rates below 6%. This discourages many from selling because moving would require replacing their existing low rate with a higher one.

In the Treasure Valley housing market, this “lock-in effect” has also played a role in limiting how many homes are listed for sale.

As mortgage rates stabilize and life circumstances change, more homeowners may begin listing properties again, which would increase sales activity across cities like Boise, Meridian, and Nampa.

Home Prices: Still Rising, But Stabilizing

One of the most common questions buyers ask is whether home prices will fall.

Most housing economists do not expect major nationwide price declines in 2026.

Instead, forecasts show continued price growth, but at a slower and more sustainable pace than during the pandemic boom.

National projections estimate:

  • Zillow: approximately 1.2% price growth
  • NAR: closer to 4% annual appreciation

Zillow also notes that the number of large housing markets experiencing price declines may shrink significantly.

In 2025, roughly 24 major markets saw price decreases. By 2026, Zillow expects that number to drop to about 12 markets nationwide.

For homeowners in the Treasure Valley, this means equity growth will likely continue, although at a calmer pace.

For buyers, slower price growth can make budgeting and negotiations slightly easier compared to the highly competitive markets of previous years.

Mortgage Rates: Stabilizing in the Mid-6% Range

Mortgage rates remain one of the most important factors shaping housing affordability.

While rates rose significantly between 2022 and 2024, most forecasts expect them to stabilize rather than continue rising sharply.

Realtor.com predicts an average mortgage rate of approximately 6.3% in 2026.

That’s noticeably lower than some recent peaks, but still far above the pandemic-era rates that fell below 3%.

Most economists agree that those ultra-low rates were an anomaly and are unlikely to return anytime soon.

However, stabilization in the mid-6% range could allow more buyers to reenter the market as monthly payments become more predictable.

For buyers planning to purchase a home in the Boise area, connecting with a lender early can help clarify realistic payment expectations and financing options.

Housing Inventory: More Choices for Buyers

Housing inventory has been one of the biggest constraints in recent years.

After hitting record lows, the number of homes available for sale is slowly increasing again.

National forecasts predict:

  • 8.9% growth in existing home inventory
  • About 4.6 months of supply, which economists consider close to a balanced market

More inventory benefits both sides of the market.

Buyers gain more choices and less intense competition. Sellers still benefit from strong demand but may need to focus more on pricing and presentation.

Builders are also helping increase supply by continuing new construction projects across many regions.

In some cases, builders are offering incentives such as interest rate buy-downs or closing cost assistance to keep homes moving.

Across the Treasure Valley real estate market, new construction communities continue expanding in areas like Caldwell, Kuna, Star, and Meridian.

Affordability Trends: Gradual Relief for Buyers

Housing affordability has been one of the biggest challenges facing buyers in recent years.

The encouraging news is that affordability metrics may finally begin improving.

National data suggests the typical share of income required for housing payments could drop to about 29.3% in 2026.

This would mark the first time affordability dips below 30% since 2022.

Several factors contribute to this improvement:

  • Moderating mortgage rates
  • Slower home price growth
  • Improving wage growth
  • More rental affordability, allowing renters to save faster

While housing will not suddenly become inexpensive, these gradual shifts could allow more first-time buyers to enter the market.

What It Means for Buyers in Boise, Meridian, and Nampa

For buyers across the Treasure Valley, the 2026 housing market may provide a slightly more balanced environment than the past few years.

That balance could include:

  • Slightly lower borrowing costs
  • More homes available for sale
  • Less intense bidding competition
  • More time to evaluate homes before making offers

However, preparation remains important.

Buyers who begin planning early, get pre-approved, and understand their price range often have the strongest advantage when the right property becomes available.

Working with experienced local professionals such as Garrett Pancheri with Living in Idaho can also help buyers navigate neighborhood trends and identify opportunities across the Treasure Valley.

What It Means for Homeowners Considering Selling

Even as the market becomes more balanced, homeowners remain in a strong position.

Home values have increased significantly over the past decade, and many homeowners have built substantial equity.

Sellers may benefit from:

  • Strong resale values
  • Continued buyer demand
  • Equity gains that can be applied toward a future home purchase

However, as buyers become more payment-sensitive, pricing strategy and property presentation will play a larger role in attracting offers.

Homes that are priced correctly and marketed effectively will continue to perform well.

The Bottom Line for the 2026 Housing Market

Housing forecasts for 2026 point toward a more balanced and stable market environment.

Home sales are expected to increase gradually, price growth should slow to sustainable levels, and inventory is likely to improve.

For buyers and sellers in Boise, Meridian, Nampa, and the broader Treasure Valley, this means more flexibility and better opportunities to plan strategic moves.

If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in 2026, taking time to understand the evolving market conditions can help you make more confident decisions.

And when it comes to navigating the local market, working with knowledgeable professionals like Garrett Pancheri with Living in Idaho can help you turn these market trends into a smart plan for your next move.

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